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Higher for Longer

Higher for Longer

Amidst financial turbulence, our message stands firm. While US headline inflation has surged due to the price of oil, core inflation steadily declines, and softer housing and rental costs promise relief ahead. The Federal Reserve's resolute stance on prolonging higher interest rates resonates globally. Despite a robust US labour market,

Correction on Cue

Correction on Cue

Global stock markets are currently experiencing a correction anticipated by seasonal trends and the Presidential election cycle. Historical data spanning over a century underscores their consistent vigour from January to July, followed by a dip from August to October, particularly in the third year of the Presidential cycle. The AAA

Where's the Recession?

Where's the Recession?

US Inflation has fallen significantly, exciting the market. Many investors believe the Fed has achieved a soft landing, but we disagree. As monetary policy works with long and variable lags, the cumulative effects of the Fed’s rate hikes are yet to be felt. Accordingly, the risk of a recession

Great Expectations

Great Expectations

Global stock markets have experienced a notable rally this year driven primarily by the Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) phenomenon and an exaggerated faith in AI as the ultimate savior of the World economy. However, caution is warranted as the valuation of certain AI stocks has reached absurd levels, distorting

Mind the Gap

Mind the Gap

AAA: May Edition; The AAA Model identifies equities as the strong trending assets, but it is clear that significant gaps exist with the underlying economic realities. Our preferred holdings are Gold and the Japan equity market. UK Cash is outperforming the World and US equity markets while Inverse UK Equities

Follow the Powell Spread

Follow the Powell Spread

AAA: April Edition Equity markets are rallying but few have made annual rolling highs, indicating that the current situation is not the beginning of a new bull market. The moves are simply bear market rallies that could continue until the end of May before falling back later in the year.

Go For Gold

Go For Gold

AAA: March Edition The US banking system is in crisis. The Fed’s aggressive monetary tightening has resulted in the second and third largest bank failures in the history of the United States. Whilst the authorities have stepped in with guarantees and liquidity facilities, a credit crunch and recession are