Global equity markets have significant momentum with 40% on our radar making new all-time highs. Even though we are late in the cycle, equity valuations are excessive and the US equity market is highly concentrated, fighting the trend is like trying to stop a steamroller using a feather. Newton'
Despite reliable indicators warning of a looming US recession, historical data suggests they can be early. In election years, a resilient trend typically endures until late November, influencing our model's inclination to remain invested in risk assets. Most equity markets, albeit expensive, remain in strong upward trends. A
In 2023 investors faced a challenging landscape as economic growth fundamentals and the stock market took divergent paths. Despite reliable recession indicators signaling potential economic risks in the U.S. this year, the anticipated downturn did not materialize. Instead, the AAA Model maintained a consistent risk-on strategy, remaining fully invested
Stock markets are following the expected seasonal pattern, experiencing a correction between Spring and Autumn and a rally since the end of October. The US equity market has exited correction territory, driven by falling bond yields and a perceived peak in Fed rates. Investors have regained their risk appetite and
The recent Hamas attack has sent shockwaves globally, sparking fears of a devastating Israeli retaliation. This marks the second active war within just over a year, both with ominous potential for sudden escalation. The aftermath is grimly predictable: surging oil prices, rampant inflation, and stunted economic growth, even if the
Amidst financial turbulence, our message stands firm. While US headline inflation has surged due to the price of oil, core inflation steadily declines, and softer housing and rental costs promise relief ahead. The Federal Reserve's resolute stance on prolonging higher interest rates resonates globally. Despite a robust US
Global stock markets are currently experiencing a correction anticipated by seasonal trends and the Presidential election cycle. Historical data spanning over a century underscores their consistent vigour from January to July, followed by a dip from August to October, particularly in the third year of the Presidential cycle. The AAA