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All eyes are on the Federal Reserve, who meet in two weeks tomorrow, Wednesday 18th September. They are likely to cut interest rates.  The Bank of England meets the next day, and they are likely to do whatever the Fed do, with some suitably opaque language. The interest rate is

Trades in Soda and Whisky; The US dollar has enjoyed long cycles, with major peaks in 1985 and 2002 and troughs in 1995 and 2008. Dollar upcycles saw weak performance from the emerging markets (relative to the world index shown). In contrast, weak dollar cycles have seen the emerging markets

Trade in Whisky; With two full weeks passing since the flash crash, we can get a sense of the new market regime. The Yen has bounced slightly, but not by enough. The technical analysts out there will say a 38.2% retracement of the prior fall is essential to demonstrate

Soda is doing well, and Whisky, less so. That reflects the asset mix, whereby Soda focused on quality, whereas Whisky has remained more cyclical. Last week, the US economy appeared to be slowing down with weak employment data, and the market reaction seemed to be fairly extreme. The VIX Index,

Given recent events in financial markets, this is an update to explain recent events. The market has had a deflation fright but without a major event such as a default. That means bond yields (black) and inflation expectations (red) have fallen. Their combined value (blue) has cooled from 7.9%

Trade in Whisky; Consumers are feeling the pinch, and with another bout of political uncertainty, parts of the stockmarket are starting to feel the pressure. Either that, or it’s just the summer, which is the weakest part of the year for stockmarkets. Yet this summer, the economic surprise indices