Global stock markets are currently experiencing a correction anticipated by seasonal trends and the Presidential election cycle. Historical data spanning over a century underscores their consistent vigour from January to July, followed by a dip from August to October, particularly in the third year of the Presidential cycle. The AAA
US Inflation has fallen significantly, exciting the market. Many investors believe the Fed has achieved a soft landing, but we disagree. As monetary policy works with long and variable lags, the cumulative effects of the Fed’s rate hikes are yet to be felt. Accordingly, the risk of a recession
Global stock markets have experienced a notable rally this year driven primarily by the Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) phenomenon and an exaggerated faith in AI as the ultimate savior of the World economy. However, caution is warranted as the valuation of certain AI stocks has reached absurd levels, distorting
AAA: May Edition; The AAA Model identifies equities as the strong trending assets, but it is clear that significant gaps exist with the underlying economic realities. Our preferred holdings are Gold and the Japan equity market. UK Cash is outperforming the World and US equity markets while Inverse UK Equities
AAA: April Edition Equity markets are rallying but few have made annual rolling highs, indicating that the current situation is not the beginning of a new bull market. The moves are simply bear market rallies that could continue until the end of May before falling back later in the year.
AAA: March Edition The US banking system is in crisis. The Fed’s aggressive monetary tightening has resulted in the second and third largest bank failures in the history of the United States. Whilst the authorities have stepped in with guarantees and liquidity facilities, a credit crunch and recession are
AAA: Flash Note With the pace and rapidity with which the Fed has been tightening – all the while peddling the “soft landing” narrative – something was bound to break. And it finally has. Last week we saw Silicon Valley Bank shut down by regulators in the second-largest bank failure in US