Sign in Subscribe

tmai

Reducing Risk

Reducing Risk

Flash Note Over the weekend, you will likely have read about the recent failure of Silicon Valley Bank, which has gone into liquidation. Bailouts tend to happen at weekends, as there are two days to negotiate terms while the market is closed.

What the Money Map Is Telling Us

What the Money Map Is Telling Us

Just like the real world has seasons, financial markets have regimes that favour certain asset types over others at different times. To better understand this, I created The Money Map, which tells you how to invest according to conditions created by interest rates and inflation. It has been a faithful

Higher Rates and Lower Houses

Higher Rates and Lower Houses

A typical UK house has risen by 140 times since the 1950s. Over a similar timeframe, houses have broadly done twice as well as the stockmarket (excluding dividends). This defies all reasonable expectations because homes are less risky than equities, and long-term risk-seeking investors are supposed to be compensated with

Crossroads

Crossroads

Having turned defensive in late 2021, we bought the dip in the autumn and have now started to scale back. The risks have risen because inflation is not going away quietly. We find ourselves at another turning point, and we must wait to see what starts to unravel. There are

Too Many Jobs

Too Many Jobs

Trades in Whisky The long-awaited US inflation data came out today at 6.4% for the year. That is 0.1% below last month, but 0.2% above the consensus forecast. This is not what the “transitional” crowd hoped to see. Inflation is falling but slowly. Too slowly for the

Reducing Risk

Reducing Risk

Flash Note In light of Tuesday’s note, I am taking defensive action in the portfolios. The risk is that bond yields start rising again, and that puts downward pressure on the stockmarket. Rate sensitive investments have been prioritized. As always with flash notes, I will explain things in more

Inflation Must Cool to Avoid a 30% Crash in Equities

Inflation Must Cool to Avoid a 30% Crash in Equities

The stockmarket did well in January, which is normally a positive sign for the rest of the year. Yet, with the world in such terrible shape, there is confusion why stocks are up at all. I refer to 2022, when the two biggest problems we faced were a collapsing bond