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Risk, Recessions and Melrose

Risk, Recessions and Melrose

This week, I discuss risk management and update you on developments on Melrose. Economic and market indicators are telling us that a recession is getting closer, which inevitably leads to a decline in earnings and a tough environment for stockmarkets. In this issue, I look at the latest warning signs

Buy the Commodities Dip

Buy the Commodities Dip

Trades in Whisky and Soda The animal spirits have returned but with a twist. One of the biggest winners since the autumn, and despite the then crisis in UK politics, has been the pound. It started from a low level and is back to somewhere close to normal. For UK

Wasn't the Fed Supposed to Be Tightening?

Wasn't the Fed Supposed to Be Tightening?

Trade in Whisky Things are not what they seem. In recent months, a trillion dollars of stimulus from Europe, Japan, and China has more than neutralised the Fed’s tightening. Strange though it may seem, this appears to have been enough for markets to shrug off the recent banking crisis.

Property Versus Commodities

Property Versus Commodities

It is nice to get through a week without a bank failure. The authorities have plugged the hole, reassuring depositors that all is well, at least for the time being. But just as the banks have been saved (again), problems arise in commercial real estate. Another asset class comes under

Sovereign Risk

Sovereign Risk

In my last Atlas Pulse, I wrote how the US 10-year yield above 4% was dangerous. When it happened last October, for 18 days, it brought down the UK government. This time, it only managed one day, but the casualty list comprises five banks (if we include First Republic). To

Reducing Risk - Part 2

Reducing Risk - Part 2

Flash Note The banking sector remains under pressure with the latest concern being Credit Suisse (CSGN SW). The shares have fallen below CHF 2 (from CHF 50 a decade ago). Concerns have grown over its viability, with a leading shareholder having ruled out a lifeline. The risk is that the

There Is Never Just One Cockroach

There Is Never Just One Cockroach

Ideas to invest your cash Where is it safe to park cash? After 15 years of zero interest rates, followed by the fastest tightening cycle in history, something was going to break. The irony is that it was the banks. As Buffett once said, “what you find is there'