Sign in Subscribe

tmai

Life’s Essentials - Food and Clothing

Trade in Whisky; I hope you’ve survived the recent turmoil. It has been a stressful two weeks, and my highest priority has been capital preservation. That has meant reducing portfolio risk in the areas that might be impacted by the new world chaos. This week, I add a new

Flash Note: Reducing Exposure in the Energy Sector

In light of the continued weakness in the oil price, now below $60 per barrel, I believe we should further reduce exposure to the energy sector.

Capital Preservation During Times of Stress

Trade in Whisky; Yesterday, the VIX spiked higher and reached 60 at the US opening. That is a very high number that has never lasted for very long. It reflects higher future volatility in the stockmarket, derived from inflated option prices, which reflects extreme market uncertainty. The modest dip to

Flash Note: Risk Reduction

Trades in Soda and Whisky; Following yesterday’s note, China has retaliated with 34% retaliatory tariffs, and this is now escalating into a global trade war. The Liberation Day tariffs are disastrous for the stockmarket and the economy. I would expect Trump to act and bring some good news, but

Flash Note: No Action

Given today’s events, I am sharing a few thoughts.

Hard Assets and Gold

With gold trading at an all-time high and many commodity prices on the rise again, it is starting to feel as though the next wave of inflation is approaching. This is now being priced in by financial markets, assisted by policy uncertainty and the rise in tariffs. USA Two-Year Inflation

Japan, Tariffs and Insurance

Trades in Whisky and Soda; There are two trades this week, so let’s get straight to it. The Japanese stockmarket peaked relative to the world in 1988, as shown below against the world index. Since then, it has underperformed by 90.5%, as shown in blue. Could it be