tmai

The yield curve has been inverted since mid-2022, which is widely thought to forecast a recession. That means the 10-year yield is below the 2-year yield. Investors are willing to pay more for longer term debt because they believe economic weakness will lead to a fall in interest rates. If

Trade in Soda; The credit crisis was 15 years ago, and despite the economy marching on, the banks continued to jump from crisis to crisis. They’ve been accused of money laundering, price fixing and more. Worst of all was the reckless lending practices and poor risk management pre-2007. They

The final score for 2023 sees Soda scrape a small positive +0.5%, and Whisky a more credible +14%. Soda caught a gust in the last few weeks of the year, avoiding a negative result. Fortunately, the long-term record remains highly respectable. I shall write a performance note for all

As the year draws to a close, Whisky has gained around 12.9% while Soda has lost 1%. Naturally, I will publish the final score after New Year’s Eve, but we can conclude that Whisky did well while Soda did not. In Soda, I have been too cautious compared

Trade in Whisky; The price of oil has been falling, but not by alarming amounts. I recently highlighted the gold-to-oil relationship at an ebullient time for gold. It suggested that oil currently offered better value, and funnily enough, gold’s all-time high proved to be a damp squib. Better luck

Gold is up while oil is down, which means uncertainty is booming while the economy is weak. Outside of the 2014 surge in shale production, a weaker oil price has always warned of trouble ahead. Oil Marks the Economic Cycle Oil is once again in a downtrend but has yet