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Printing for Growth

Trade in the Whisky Portfolio; Last Thursday, the Bank of England cut interest rates by 0.25% to 4%. The ECB has already got them down to 2.2%, with the euro still performing well. In the US, the Fed has held them at 4.5% but is expected to

Bonds Like a Weak Economy

Trade in the Soda Portfolio; Last Friday, I issued a Flash Note for the first time since April. A few things came together, such as a rally in the US dollar, a drop in bond yields, and a strong move in the yen. These are all associated with Risk-OFF market

Flash Note: Trades in Whisky

Risk Reduction;

Bonds: Cheap or Bust?

Trade in the Whisky Portfolio; At 2.5%, the 30-year real yield on government bonds in both UK gilts and US treasuries is hard to ignore. Data goes back to 1996 in the UK, and 1998 in the US. Prior to that, there was no significant market for index-linked bonds,

Gentlemen vs Hooligans

Trades in Whisky; A friend asked me to send him the Gentlemen vs Hooligans chart I published yesterday in The Global Trend Investor. As he is a pro managing billions, I was delighted he noticed. It is such an important chart because it shows you how the nature of this

A Good Year

Trades in Whisky; 2025 is turning out to be a good year for investors. Well, at least it is for active investors, perhaps not so much for the index funds. I am only too aware that in some years, the index funds, that are happy to own any stock at

Spending Up, Taxes Up, Head for Boston

While researching tariffs, I stumbled across the USB Trump Tariff Losers Index. It’s a list of companies created by the equity strategists at UBS, identifying stocks from the UK and Europe that would likely plummet under Trump’s tariffs. It features German automobiles, British and French booze, luxury goods,