Resilience Is Bullish
ByteFolio Issue 220;
Bitcoin’s ByteTrend Score remains a neutral 3 out of 5, but it’s looking more like a solid 3 in a short-term uptrend. Turning the 200-day moving average will take time, but it should be a task for this autumn.
Bitcoin Daily
This is the quietest Bitcoin base I have ever witnessed; 2014, 2018, and 2022 were all frenetic affairs, and 2022 was even front-page news. This time, the world has forgotten, but not according to Google Trends for the search term “Bitcoin”.
Bitcoin Search Term
Interest is far from dead, but the hype cycle almost certainly is. Ali thinks the Clarity Act is important here and writes about it below. But another thesis is that Bitcoin likes rising rates and inflation. Rates have been rising, which should be bullish, but inflation expectations are low and falling, at least in the short-term. This is unhelpful for the likes of Bitcoin and gold.
The ByteTree Money map
I showed this recently, but Bitcoin bulls cannot ignore the fact that the two-year real rates are still rising. Most of that is due to inflation expectations, which are down to 2.2%. As I said last time, this is a high number.
Two-Year Real Rates
The best thing about high numbers is that they will fall. Bitcoin is resilient in the face of a tough macro environment, where real rates are high, and the dollar is in a bull market. Resilience is bullish.
