It’s Bitcoin’s Market - For Now

Shehriyar Ali

Disclaimer: Your capital is at risk. This is not investment advice.

Issue 231;

💡

This issue covers Solana (SOL) and Ethereum (ETH).

Is altcoin season around the corner? On the numbers, not yet. CoinMarketCap’s (CMC) Altcoin Season Index, which tracks how many of the top 100 altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin over the past 90 days, sits at 57. A reading of 75 is needed to call an altcoin season.

That said, alts have had their moment. Breadth improved steadily through August and September, as altcoins such as Zcash and NEAR rallied hard and the index reached its yearly high of 64 on 27 September. Since then, it has rolled over.

CMC Altcoin Season Index

The market has cooled, and in a cooling market, capital retreats to Bitcoin. Bitcoin has fallen from roughly $87,000 to $81,000, yet its market share has grown from 58.5% a month ago to 60.1% today. Over the same period, Ethereum’s share slipped from 11.3% to 10.6%, and the rest of the market from 30.1% to 29.3%. This is less Bitcoin strength than a flight to quality.

Bitcoin Dominance

ETH/BTC tells the same story. The ratio broke above its 280-day moving average in August and held between 0.031 and 0.033 through September. In October, it lost that level and now sits at 0.0292.

ETH in BTC

Sentiment has followed, with CMC’s Fear and Greed Index falling from 70 (Greed) a month ago to 46 (Neutral) today.

CMC Fear and Greed Index

Yet this looks like a reset rather than a breakdown. The Altcoin Season Index stood at 14 in December 2025, so breadth remains far healthier than a year ago. Bitcoin dominance is still below its May high of 60.6%, and sentiment has cooled without tipping into fear. That is often how markets clear out froth before the next leg higher.

What alts are missing is a catalyst. The CLARITY Act, a long-awaited US bill that would set clear rules for crypto tokens, exchanges, and DeFi, has stalled in Congress. It was widely seen as the key to drawing institutional capital beyond Bitcoin. With the US midterm elections on 3 November and prediction markets expecting Democrats to take the Senate, some fear the bill is dead. We disagree.

Support for a crypto framework crosses party lines, and disagreements have been over the details, not the need for rules. A change in Washington may mean a slower, stricter bill, but we think a market structure bill still will happen. When it does, it is likely to be the catalyst that finally broadens this rally beyond Bitcoin.

Until then, this is Bitcoin’s market. When breadth returns, we expect it to favour altcoins with real fundamentals, such as those held in ByteFolio.

It’s Bitcoin’s Market - For Now