Bitcoin Network Demand Model Update

Disclaimer: Your capital is at risk. This is not investment advice.

Week 35 2021

The Network Demand model remains at 0/6. The long-term transaction signal is showing signs of resolving to a positive reading. However, the short-term signal shows worrying signs of renewed weakness, indicating that we may have longer to wait than thought without a material improvement in on-chain activity.

Source: ByteTree. *Long-term transaction value ($) since January 2020*.

Song-term Transaction Activity

Source: ByteTree. *Short-term transaction value ($) since June 2020*.

Similarly, fee data continues to be soft, indicating scant competition for traffic. Because transactions are so cheap to process, it should facilitate activity, but as shown earlier, that doesn’t appear to be happening yet.

Short-term Fees

Perhaps one area of positive news is MRI, where we have seen a gradual pick-up from the lows. This suggests miners are seeing a bid. However, it also comes as network “difficulty” has recovered, and perhaps they are judging that this is a level to lock in some recent profit.