BOLD Retreats

ByteTree BOLD Index Monthly Rebalancing Report;

The 21Shares Bitcoin Gold ETP (BOLD) invests in Bitcoin and Gold. BOLD combines the world’s two most liquid alternative assets on a risk-adjusted basis. Due to their naturally low correlation, the diversification benefits of holding both assets have been unusually high. Bitcoin prefers risk-on market conditions, while Gold prefers risk-off.

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BOLD Performance

In October, BOLD fell by 7.4%, while Bitcoin returned -8.2%, Gold -6.8%, and global equities -0.8%, in USD terms. The last few days of the month saw a heavy selloff in both Bitcoin and Gold.

Bitcoin, Gold, BOLD, and Equities in USD – October 2026

Bitcoin’s weakness was exacerbated by a hack of the Binance exchange and the selloff in technology stocks. Gold broke below $4,000, which caused some liquidations. This has also been exacerbated by a strong dollar and a switch to bonds at attractive yields. Both assets have been weak this year following strong performance in previous years.

Over the past year, BOLD has returned -6.7%, Bitcoin has returned -28.6%, while Gold has returned -3.7%, and equities +12.3%. The gold correction continues from the January high, while despite the recent setback, Bitcoin appears to have a rising trend following the summer lows. 

Bitcoin, Gold, BOLD, and Global Equities in USD - Past Year

Over the past five years, BOLD has returned +130.6%, while Bitcoin has returned +24.5%, Gold +116.1%, and equities +63.9%. The average return of Bitcoin and Gold was 72.8%, yet BOLD returned 130.6%, demonstrating 57.8% of added value above the average. This is mainly driven by the 60 monthly rebalancing transactions over the past five years, which add up quickly.

Bitcoin, Gold, BOLD, and Global Equities in USD - Past Five Years

This point is best demonstrated by Bitcoin’s price high of $19,041 on 17^th December 2017, which seemed extreme at the time. Since then, BOLD has returned +415.5%, while Bitcoin has returned +335.5%, Gold +208.4%, and equities +168.1%. The average return of Bitcoin and Gold was 280.5%, yet BOLD was +135.1% ahead. Over longer periods, BOLD has comfortably outperformed both Bitcoin and Gold. Over this period, Bitcoin is back in front of Gold, while BOLD has beaten both assets.

Bitcoin, Gold, BOLD, and Global Equities in USD - Since Bitcoin’s 2017 Price High

Monthly Rebalancing of the BOLD ETP

BOLD allocates to Bitcoin and Gold on a risk-adjusted basis using historical volatility calculated from daily price movements. The less volatile asset, which has lower daily price moves, gets a higher weight in the index at the end of the monthly rebalancing.

Notably, Bitcoin’s 360-day volatility has been falling, while Gold’s has been rising until this month. Note that Bitcoin’s short-term 180-day volatility has fallen again. For Gold, the 180-day measure is still leading Gold’s volatility higher, but at a slower pace. The gap between the asset volatilities has never been narrower than it is today. Over 180 days, Gold’s volatility is falling again.

Bitcoin and Gold’s Past 360-day Volatility

Rather than having the same amount of value invested in each asset, the BOLD strategy aims to hold equal amounts of “risk” in each asset and is hence “risk-weighted”. Over the past 360 days, Bitcoin and Gold's volatility was 35.2% and 26.8%, respectively. Gold’s volatility has increased significantly compared to recent years.

If Bitcoin and Gold had the same volatility, the weights would be 50/50. Indeed, if Gold’s volatility were ever higher than Bitcoin’s, then Bitcoin would have a larger allocation. Using this formula, the volatility measures resulted in new target weights of 43.3% for Bitcoin and 56.7% for Gold.

Asset allocation is an important feature. Over the long term, the aim is to equalise the risk in each asset. In 2017 and 2018, BOLD had relatively low exposure to Bitcoin due to its high volatility at the time, which held it in good stead in the 2018 bear market. At other times, it has generally been in the 20% to 25% range, with the remaining balance in Gold.

Bitcoin: Daily Target Weight

The monthly rebalancing transactions, which repeatedly top up the weaker asset, have added significant value compared to a buy-and-hold strategy. Using the Bitcoin weight, you can see how monthly rebalancing brings the asset allocation back in line. Repeatedly doing this adds value while maintaining a constant level of risk.

Bitcoin: Daily Weight and Target Weight

Daily weights deviate more than monthly target weights because intra-month price movements between Bitcoin and Gold drive them. For example, Bitcoin has beaten Gold in recent months, and so Bitcoin’s exposure has been reduced back down to the target weight during the monthly rebalancing process. This ensures the strategy maintains the optimised Bitcoin and Gold weights.

This process keeps the amount of risk, as defined by volatility, roughly the same in each asset. That means BOLD maintains its risk level over time, without being overly exposed to either Bitcoin or Gold. This explains why BOLD’s volatility is so low, a key advantage over holding Bitcoin and Gold separately.

BOLD’s Volatility Is Comparable to Gold’s

Risk is not just a matter of volatility but of maximum drawdowns. Historically, Bitcoin drawdowns have been severe and Gold drawdowns, in the minds of many, less so. But in the 1980s and 1990s, Gold had prolonged drawdowns, and that could happen again one day. By diversifying between the assets, the largest drawdowns have been dampened. BOLD drawdowns have been much lower than either Bitcoin or Gold alone. The current drawdown is 13.7%. In contrast, Gold is down 25.0% from its all-time high, and Bitcoin is down 37.0%.

Max Drawdown: Gold, Bitcoin, and BOLD

This matters because BOLD compounds returns by regularly locking in profits. Family offices, with long-term investment horizons, understand this principle. Many opt for conservative, compounding, absolute-return strategies over beating the index, because if a portfolio halves, it needs to double to get back to square one. By avoiding large drawdowns, compounding can take place at a higher rate over the long term.

Volatility Comparison

Many believe Bitcoin is a highly volatile asset, but in reality, it has lower volatility than Tesla and META, and only slightly more than NVIDIA. Gold has lower volatility than Apple, as does BOLD.

Volatility Harvesting

Risk-weighting not only reduces overall volatility, but rebalancing transactions also add value through a process known as “volatility harvesting”. As the linked paper by Bouchey, Nemtchinov, Paulsen, and Stein states, “volatility is a drag on the compounding effect.”

While Bitcoin and Gold travel along different paths, it is notable how BOLD has historically been highly correlated with the global M2 money supply, much more so than Bitcoin or Gold in isolation. BOLD has also been an efficient way to express this macroeconomic view. M2 has grown from $60 trillion in 2015 to $119.4 trillion today. In that time, BOLD has beaten M2 by nearly 6.4x, in a calm manner. That outperformance ratio has eased in 2026 after a strong run in the prior two years, but it has recently started to recover.

BOLD vs the Global Money Supply

Bitcoin and Gold ETF Flows

Over the past 90 days, Bitcoin and Gold ETFs have seen strong flows. Gold is now back in high territory, while Bitcoin is back above zero. The correlation between the asset flows has generally been negative but is currently positive.

The total value of Bitcoin and Gold ETFs is $580 billion and appears stable.

BOLD ETP

The 21Shares Bitcoin Gold ETP (BOLD) tracks the BOLD Index. The fund now holds $42.4 million in Bitcoin and Gold, held in safe custody with BitGo for Bitcoin and JPMorgan for Gold. The BOLD ETP outflows from June have stabilised. October volumes were up from July and August, but still lower than earlier this year.

21Shares ByteTree BOLD ETP Price and Volume by Share Class in US$

BOLD ETP Listings

The 21Shares Bitcoin Gold ETP (BOLD) is listed in Switzerland, Germany, the Netherlands, France, Sweden, Italy, and the United Kingdom, actively trading in CHF, EUR, USD, SEK, and GBP. The ticker is BOLD.

The 21Shares Bitcoin Gold ETP trades in the primary market, meaning that purchases and sales result in direct buy or sell transactions of Bitcoin and Gold from the market. For further information, please visit BOLDETF.com, which offers extensive data and charts to help investors better understand the benefits of the strategy.

BOLD Videos

Please watch our recent videos with:

• Charlie Erith, Wiston Capital (March 2026)
• 21Shares with Max Michielsen and Darius Moukhtarzadeh (March 2026)
• Chris Wood, Chief Equity Strategist at Jefferies (February 2026)
• John Reade, Senior Market Strategist at the World Gold Council (January 2026)
• Izabella Kaminska, Founder of The Blind Spot (January 2026)
• Adrian Fritz, Chief Investment Strategist at 21Shares (January 2026)

Product Details

Contact

For information on investing in BOLD, contact bold@bytetree.com.

If your investment firm or media outlet would like a private briefing on BOLD, we will be happy to oblige. If a physical meeting is not possible, we can arrange a Zoom call.

Further Information

• Kaiko Index Provider
• 21Shares Bitcoin Gold (BOLD) ETP
• BOLDETF.com