Bitcoin Drives BOLD
ByteTree BOLD Index Monthly Rebalancing Report;
The 21Shares Bitcoin Gold ETP (BOLD) invests in Bitcoin and Gold. BOLD combines the world’s two most liquid alternative assets on a risk-adjusted basis. Due to their naturally low correlation, the diversification benefits of holding both assets have been unusually high. Bitcoin prefers risk-on market conditions, while Gold prefers risk-off.
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BOLD Performance
In September, BOLD rose by 0.7%, while Bitcoin returned 6.7%, Gold -6.3%, and global equities -1.1%, in USD terms. Bitcoin had a follow-on rally from August, while gold pulled back in the face of a weak bond market.
Bitcoin, Gold, BOLD, and Equities in USD – September 2026
Over the past year, BOLD has returned 1.7%, Bitcoin -26.6%, Gold +7.7%, and equities +15.4%. Gold is easing back while Bitcoin is staging a recovery rally. Equities have nipped ahead in 2026, driven by the AI trade. How long will this last?
Bitcoin, Gold, BOLD, and Global Equities in USD - Past Year
Over the past five years, BOLD has returned +173.0%, while Bitcoin has returned +94.0%, Gold +136.6%, and equities +75.6%. The average return of Bitcoin and Gold was 115.3%, yet BOLD returned 173.0%, demonstrating 57.7% of added value above the average. This is mainly driven by rebalancing transactions. Note how BOLD is now ahead of Gold, despite a weak Bitcoin over five years. Bitcoin is back ahead of equities following the price rally.
Bitcoin, Gold, BOLD, and Global Equities in USD - Past Five Years
This point is best demonstrated by the Bitcoin price high at $19,041 on 17th December 2017, which seemed extreme at the time. Since then, BOLD has returned +456.4%, while Bitcoin has returned +377.6%, Gold +231.0%, and equities +170.6%. The average return of Bitcoin and Gold was 304.3%, yet BOLD was +152.1% ahead. Over these longer periods, BOLD has been comfortably ahead of both Bitcoin and Gold. While Bitcoin and Gold have seen similar returns, BOLD has stayed ahead. Bitcoin is now back in front of Gold since late 2017.
Bitcoin, Gold, BOLD, and Global Equities in USD - Since Bitcoin’s 2017 Price High
Monthly Rebalancing of the BOLD ETP
BOLD allocates to Bitcoin and Gold on a risk-adjusted basis using historical volatility calculated from daily price movements. The less volatile asset, which has lower daily price moves, gets a higher weight in the index at the end of the monthly rebalancing.
It is notable that Bitcoin’s 360-day volatility has been falling, while Gold’s has been rising until this month. Note that Bitcoin’s short-term 180-day volatility has fallen again. For Gold, the 180-day measure is still leading Gold’s volatility higher, but at a slower pace. The gap between the asset volatilities has never been narrower than it is today. Over 180 days, the asset volatilities are similar.
Bitcoin and Gold’s Past 360-day Volatility
Rather than having the same amount of value invested in each asset, the BOLD strategy aims to hold equal amounts of “risk” in each asset and is hence “risk-weighted”. Over the past 360 days, Bitcoin and Gold's volatility was 36.2% and 27.3%, respectively. The increase in Gold’s volatility has been significant compared to recent years.
If Bitcoin and Gold had the same volatility, the weights would be 50/50. Indeed, if Gold’s volatility were ever higher than Bitcoin’s, then Bitcoin would have a larger allocation. Using this formula, the volatility measures produced new target weights of 42.9% for Bitcoin and 57.1% for Gold.
Asset allocation is an important feature. Over the long term, the aim is to equalise the risk in each asset. In 2017 and 2018, BOLD had relatively low exposure to Bitcoin due to its high volatility at the time, which held it in good stead in the 2018 bear market. At other times, it has generally been in the 20% to 25% range, with the remaining balance in Gold.
Bitcoin: Daily Target Weight
The monthly rebalancing transactions, which repeatedly top up the weaker asset, have added significant value compared to a buy-and-hold strategy. Using the weight in Bitcoin, you can see how the monthly rebalancing brings the asset allocation back into line. Repeatedly doing this adds value while maintaining a constant level of risk.
Bitcoin: Daily Weight and Target Weight
The daily weights deviate much more than the monthly target weights due to the intra-month price movements between Bitcoin and Gold. For example, Bitcoin has beaten Gold in recent months, and so Bitcoin’s exposure has been reduced back down to the target weight during the monthly rebalancing process. This ensures the strategy maintains the optimised weights for Bitcoin and Gold.
This process keeps the amount of risk, as defined by volatility, roughly the same in each asset. That means BOLD maintains its risk level over time, without being overly exposed to either Bitcoin or Gold. This explains why BOLD’s volatility is so low, a key advantage over holding Bitcoin and Gold separately.
BOLD’s Volatility Is Comparable to Gold
Risk is not just a matter of volatility but of maximum drawdowns. Historically, Bitcoin drawdowns have been severe and Gold drawdowns, in the minds of many, less so. But in the 1980s and 1990s, Gold had prolonged drawdowns, and that could happen again one day. By diversifying between the assets, the largest drawdowns have been dampened. BOLD drawdowns have been much lower than either Bitcoin or Gold alone. The current drawdown for BOLD is 6.9%. In contrast, Gold is down 21.1% from its all-time high, and Bitcoin is down 31.2%.
Max Drawdown: Gold, Bitcoin and BOLD
This is important as BOLD compounds returns by regularly locking in profits. Family offices, with long-term investment horizons, understand this principle. Many opt for conservative, compounding, absolute-return strategies over beating the index, because if a portfolio halves, it needs to double to get back to square one. By avoiding large drawdowns, compounding can take place at a higher rate over the long term.
Volatility: Magnificent 7 Comparison
Many believe Bitcoin is a highly volatile asset, but in reality it has lower volatility than Tesla and META, and only slightly more than NVIDIA and Amazon. Gold has lower volatility than Microsoft, as does BOLD.
Volatility Harvesting
Risk-weighting not only reduces overall volatility, but rebalancing transactions also add value through a process known as “volatility harvesting”. As the linked paper by Bouchey, Nemtchinov, Paulsen, and Stein states, “volatility is a drag on the compounding effect.”
While Bitcoin and Gold travel along different paths, it is notable how BOLD has historically been highly correlated with the global M2 money supply, much more so than Bitcoin or Gold in isolation. BOLD has also been an efficient way to express this macroeconomic view. M2 has grown from $60 trillion in 2015 to $118.6 trillion today. In that time, BOLD has beaten M2 by nearly 7x, in a calm manner. That outperformance ratio has eased in 2026 after a strong run in the prior two years, but it has recently bounced back.
BOLD vs the Global Money Supply
Bitcoin and Gold ETF Flows
Over the past 90 days, Bitcoin and Gold ETFs have seen strong flows. Gold is now back in high territory, while Bitcoin is back above zero. The correlation between the asset flows has generally been negative but is currently positive.
The total value of Bitcoin and Gold ETFs is $600 billion, which appears to be stable.
BOLD ETP
The 21Shares Bitcoin Gold ETP (BOLD) tracks the BOLD Index. The fund now holds $43.5 million in Bitcoin and Gold, held in safe custody with BitGo for Bitcoin and JP Morgan for Gold. The BOLD ETP outflows from June have stabilised. Volumes in September were up on July and August, but still lower than what we saw earlier this year.
21Shares Bitcoin Gold ETP (BOLD) Price and Volume by Share Class in US$
BOLD ETP Listings
The 21Shares Bitcoin Gold ETP is listed in Switzerland, Germany, the Netherlands, France, Sweden, Italy, and the United Kingdom, actively trading in CHF, EUR, USD, SEK, and GBP. The ticker is BOLD.
The 21Shares Bitcoin Gold ETP trades in the primary market, meaning that purchases and sales result in direct buy or sell transactions of Bitcoin and Gold from the market. For further information, please visit BOLDETF.com, which offers extensive data and charts to help investors better understand the benefits of the strategy.
BOLD Videos
Please watch our recent videos with:
- Charlie Erith, Wiston Capital (March 2026)
- 21Shares with Max Michielsen and Darius Moukhtarzadeh (March 2026)
- Chris Wood, Chief Equity Strategist at Jefferies (February 2026)
- John Reade, Senior Market Strategist at the World Gold Council (January 2026)
- Izabella Kaminska, Founder of The Blind Spot (January 2026)
- Adrian Fritz, Chief Investment Strategist at 21Shares (January 2026)
Product Details
| Issuer | 21Shares AG, Switzerland |
| Launch Date | 27 April 2022 |
| Fee | 0.65% Per Annum |
| Custody | BitGo for Bitcoin, JP Morgan for Gold |
| Investment Objective | Risk-weighted Bitcoin and Gold Exposure |
| Benchmark | Kaiko ByteTree BOLD Index |
| Rebalancing Frequency | Monthly |
| ISIN | CH1146882308 |
| SEDOL | BK81V89 CH |
| WKN | A3GYXW |
| Ticker | BOLD SW (Switzerland), BOLD GY (Germany), BOLD FP (France), BOLD NA (the Netherlands), BOLD SS (Sweden), BOLD LN (United Kingdom), BOLD IT (Italy) |
| Listings | Switzerland, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Sweden, United Kingdom, Italy |
| Currency | USD, EUR, CHF, GBP, SEK |
Contact
For information on investing in BOLD, contact bold@bytetree.com.
If your investment firm or media outlet would like a private briefing on BOLD, we will be happy to oblige. If a physical meeting is not possible, we can arrange a Zoom call.
