Hard Assets Correct as Real Interest Rates Surge
ByteTree BOLD Index Monthly Rebalancing Report;
The 21Shares Bitcoin Gold ETP (BOLD) invests in Bitcoin and Gold. BOLD combines the world’s two most liquid alternative assets on a risk-adjusted basis. Due to their naturally low correlation, the diversification benefits of holding both assets have been unusually high. Bitcoin prefers risk-on market conditions, while Gold prefers risk-off.
The target weights last month were 43.2% and 56.8% (Bitcoin to Gold). Price changes over the month resulted in the last day’s weights being 40.7% Bitcoin and 59.3% Gold. This means the latest rebalance has increased Bitcoin by 2.7% and reduced Gold to meet the new target weights.
BOLD Performance
In April, BOLD fell by 14.9%, while Bitcoin returned -20.3%, Gold -11.7%, and global equities -0.7% in USD terms. Equities have recently started to demonstrate strength against hard assets as rising real interest rates have caused the US dollar to strengthen. The AI boom has taken the attention.
Bitcoin, Gold, BOLD, and Equities in USD – June 2026
The Surge in Real Rates
Bitcoin has been weak since October, and Gold since January. The dollar has begun to rally, as real interest rates have surged. That is, the bond yield has risen, while inflation expectations have declined since the peace deal in the Strait of Hormuz. Spikes in real rates are highlighted below, and all of them coincided with Bitcoin bear markets.
Two-Year Real Rates
Gold’s weakness is related, as it does not like to see a fall in inflation or higher bond yields either. But more importantly, Gold is likely correcting from a powerful bear market in 2024 and 2025.
Over the past year, BOLD has returned -3.9%, Bitcoin has returned -45.5%, while Gold has returned +21.3%, and equities +21.3%. BOLD had been moving in sync with equities, which have now broken away. It is rare for Bitcoin and Gold to both fall so significantly at the same time.
Bitcoin, Gold, BOLD, and Global Equities in USD - Past Year
The Rally in Semiconductors
Bitcoin and Gold were very much the centre of attention in recent years, but that has cooled off as semiconductors have stolen the limelight. With profits surging during the AI boom, this theme has become a focus for investors.
Semiconductors vs the World Index
Over the past five years, BOLD has returned +136.4%, while Bitcoin has returned +69.6%, Gold +126.4%, and equities +70.0%. The average return for Bitcoin and Gold was 98.0%, yet BOLD returned 136.4%, demonstrating 38.4% of added value above the average. This is mainly driven by rebalancing transactions. Note how BOLD remains ahead of Gold despite a weak Bitcoin.
Bitcoin, Gold, BOLD, and Global Equities in USD - Past Five Years
This point is best demonstrated by the Bitcoin price high at $19,041 on 17th December 2017, which seemed extreme at the time. Since then, BOLD has returned +355.3%, while Bitcoin has returned +208.0%, Gold +217.8%, and equities +162.9%. For this time period, the average return for Bitcoin and Gold was 212.8%, yet BOLD was +142.6% ahead. Over these longer periods, BOLD has been comfortably ahead of both Bitcoin and Gold. While Bitcoin and Gold have seen similar returns, BOLD has stayed ahead. The recent weakness in both assets has dragged BOLD down to the average.
Bitcoin, Gold, BOLD, and Global Equities in USD - Since Bitcoin’s 2017 Price High
Monthly Rebalancing of the BOLD ETP
BOLD allocates to Bitcoin and Gold on a risk-adjusted basis using historical volatility calculated from daily price movements. The less volatile asset, which has lower daily price moves, gets a higher weight in the index at the end of the monthly rebalancing.
Notably, Bitcoin’s 360-day volatility has been falling, while Gold’s has been rising. However, note that Bitcoin’s short-term 180-day volatility has risen in June. For Gold, the 180-day measure is still leading Gold’s volatility higher. The gap between the asset volatilities has never been narrower than it is today.
Bitcoin and Gold’s Past 360-day Volatility
Rather than investing the same amount of value in each asset, the BOLD strategy aims to hold equal amounts of “risk” in each asset and is therefore “risk-weighted”. The volatility of Bitcoin and Gold over the past 360 days was 33.5% and 25.7%, respectively. The increase in Gold’s volatility has been significant, and it has not been in this territory since the financial crisis in 2008.
If Bitcoin and Gold had the same volatility, the weights would be 50/50. Indeed, if Gold’s volatility were ever higher than Bitcoin’s, then Bitcoin would have a larger allocation. The volatility measures have resulted in new target weights of 43.4% for Bitcoin and 56.6% for Gold, using this formula.
Asset allocation is an important feature. Over the long term, the aim is to equalise the risk in each asset. In 2017 and 2018, BOLD had relatively low exposure to Bitcoin due to its high volatility at the time, which held it in good stead in the 2018 bear market. At other times, it has generally been in the 20% to 25% range, with the remaining balance in Gold.
Bitcoin: Daily Target Weight
The monthly rebalancing transactions, which repeatedly top up the weaker asset, have added significant value compared to a buy-and-hold strategy. Using the weight in Bitcoin, you can see how the monthly rebalancing brings the asset allocation back into line. Repeatedly doing this adds value while maintaining a constant level of risk.
Bitcoin: Daily Weight and Target Weight
The daily weights deviate much more than the monthly target weights due to the intra-month price movements between Bitcoin and Gold. For example, Bitcoin has beaten Gold over the last two months, and so Bitcoin’s exposure has been reduced back down to the target weight during the monthly rebalancing. This ensures the strategy maintains the optimised weights for Bitcoin and Gold.
This process keeps the risk level, as defined by volatility, roughly the same across assets. That means BOLD maintains its risk level over time, without being overly exposed to either Bitcoin or Gold. This explains why BOLD’s volatility is so low, a key advantage over holding Bitcoin and Gold separately.
BOLD’s Volatility Is Comparable with Gold
Risk is not just a matter of volatility but of maximum drawdowns. Historically, Bitcoin’s drawdowns have been severe, and Gold’s drawdowns, in the minds of many, less so. But in the 1980s and 1990s, Gold experienced prolonged drawdowns, and that could happen again one day. By diversifying between the assets, the largest drawdowns have been dampened. BOLD drawdowns have been much lower than either Bitcoin or Gold alone. The current drawdown is 22.5%, which compares with the 25% drawdown seen in 2022.
Max Drawdown: Gold, Bitcoin, and BOLD
This is important as BOLD compounds returns by regularly locking in profits. Family offices, with long-term investment horizons, understand this principle. Many opt for conservative, compounding, absolute-return strategies over beating the index, as if a portfolio halves, it needs to double to get back to square one. By avoiding large drawdowns, compounding can take place at a higher rate over the long term.
Volatility Harvesting
Not only does risk-weighting reduce overall volatility, but the rebalancing transactions add value through a process known as “volatility harvesting”. As the linked paper by Bouchey, Nemtchinov, Paulsen, and Stein states, “volatility is a drag on the compounding effect.”
While Bitcoin and Gold travel along different paths, it is notable how BOLD has historically been highly correlated with the global M2 money supply, much more so than Bitcoin or Gold in isolation. BOLD has also been an efficient way to express this macroeconomic view. M2 has grown from $60 trillion in 2015 to $116.4 trillion today. During that time, BOLD has calmly beaten the M2 by 5.8x. That ratio of outperformance has eased back in 2026, following a strong run in the two prior years.
BOLD vs the Global Money Supply
Bitcoin and Gold ETF Flows
Over the past 90 days, Bitcoin and Gold ETFs have seen outflows. The correlation between the asset flows has generally been negative but it is currently positive. We assume this will not last for too long, as real rates peak and the dollar rally stalls.
The total value of Bitcoin and Gold ETFs is $510 billion, which is a $90 million drop since last month.
BOLD ETP
The 21Shares Bitcoin Gold ETP (BOLD) tracks the BOLD Index. The fund now holds $30.2 million in Bitcoin and Gold, held in safe custody with Copper for Bitcoin and JP Morgan for Gold. The GBP volume is shown in blue.
21Shares ByteTree BOLD ETP Price and Volume by Share Class in US$
BOLD saw outflows in June, in line with the broader trend in the Bitcoin and Gold ETF sector.
BOLD ETP Listings
The 21Shares Bitcoin Gold ETP (BOLD) is listed in Switzerland, Germany, the Netherlands, France, Sweden, Italy, and the United Kingdom, actively trading in CHF, EUR, USD, SEK, and GBP. The ticker is BOLD.
The 21Shares Bitcoin Gold ETP trades in the primary market, meaning that purchases and sales result in direct buy or sell transactions of Bitcoin and Gold from the market. For further information, please visit BOLDETF.com, which offers extensive data and charts to help investors better understand the benefits of the strategy.
Recent Videos
Please watch our recent videos with:
- Charlie Erith, Wiston Capital (March 2026)
- 21Shares with Max Michielsen and Darius Moukhtarzadeh (March 2026)
- Chris Wood, Chief Equity Strategist at Jefferies (February 2026)
- John Reade, Senior Market Strategist at the World Gold Council (January 2026)
- Izabella Kaminska, Founder of The Blind Spot (January 2026)
- Adrian Fritz, Chief Investment Strategist at 21Shares (January 2026)
Product Details
| Issuer | 21Shares AG, Switzerland |
| Launch Date | 27 April 2022 |
| Fee | 0.65% Per Annum |
| Custody | Copper Technologies (Swiss) for Bitcoin, JP Morgan for Gold |
| Investment Objective | Risk-weighted Bitcoin and Gold Exposure |
| Benchmark | Kaiko ByteTree BOLD Index |
| Rebalancing Frequency | Monthly |
| ISIN | CH1146882308 |
| SEDOL | BK81V89 CH |
| WKN | A3GYXW |
| Ticker | BOLD SW (Switzerland), BOLD GY (Germany), BOLD FP (France), BOLD NA (the Netherlands), BOLD SS (Sweden), BOLD LN (United Kingdom), BOLD IT (Italy) |
| Listings | Switzerland, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Sweden, United Kingdom, Italy |
| Currency | USD, EUR, CHF, GBP, SEK |
Contact
For information on investing in BOLD, contact bold@bytetree.com.
If your investment firm or media outlet would like a private briefing on BOLD, we will be happy to oblige. If a physical meeting is not possible, we can arrange a Zoom call.
