September Precedes Uptober
ByteFolio Issue 223;
Bitcoin鈥檚 ByteTrend Score has risen to a 5. As we predicted a fortnight ago, the 200-day moving average is now positively sloping as the Jan/Feb decline is out of the picture. A break above $80k would bring more confidence, but for the first time in over a year, I can say that things are truly shaping up.
Bitcoin Daily
The weekly chart has a score of 4, up from 1. There was no chance that the 200-week moving average would turn down, but it was briefly breached, taking the score to 1 at times over the summer. With the 30-week moving average in an uptrend, all it takes is a touch of the 20-week max line (blue) at $80k to make Bitcoin a 5 on the weekly and daily charts.
Bitcoin Weekly
The halving is projected to take place in April 2028, but the anticipation starts earlier. The blue box marks the lows of prior cycles and ends on 21st October. I am inclined to believe the low is now in place for this cycle, and a bull run will develop. That said, things can always go wrong, especially in crypto.
Bitcoin Halving Cycles
Moreover, September is historically a soft month ahead of October, the strongest month. Theories vary, but Uptober has stuck. We may see a few soft weeks, but the rally is likely to resume next month.
Bitcoin Past Monthly Returns since 2015
Will Alt Season Return? Of course it will, but it will take time.
The MVDA is 67.5% Bitcoin, so it dominates the index. Starting at 100, the index did twice as well as Bitcoin into 2017, but has slumped ever since, despite a strong 2021. A decent alt rally is long overdue, but the space has matured, with many great projects demonstrating success. Alts will come, but maybe the best bit will be post-halving.
Bitcoin vs the MVDA Digital Assets 100 Index
Keep the faith.
