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ByteFolio Issue 211;

Bitcoin’s ByteTrend Score has dropped to a 0 for the first time since April. The bear has returned.

Bitcoin

Gold has also fallen below its 200-day moving average. However, the long-term moving average is still rising, so Gold gets a ByteTrend Score of 1.

Gold

We are often told how Bitcoin and gold like a weak dollar. Notably, the US dollar has returned to an uptrend with a bullish ByteTrend Score of 5. A strong dollar is unhelpful.

Dollar

We know from the Money Map, shown last week, that both assets like inflation. Additionally, despite the resumption of hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz, we’ve seen falling inflation expectations, and quite notably so.

US Inflation Expectations

Perhaps we should take that with a pinch of salt. Over the past decade, there have been two distinct regimes: pre- and post-pandemic. The macroeconomic environment appears inflationary, even after stripping out the two notable conflicts.

US Inflation Expectations – 10 Years

The story of rates is also notable. The market looks forward to cuts, but the good old Taylor Rule thinks US interest rates should be 6.5%. To cut now, or indeed keep them low, would be highly inflationary. Indeed, the Atlanta Fed sees US growth at 4.3%, which is a boom.

The Taylor Rule

Monetary policy remains favourable, but gold has surged in recent years and is cooling off. The same could be said about Bitcoin, which is still miles ahead of the internet stocks in recent years.

Bitcoin vs the Internet

To end on a high note, the pre-halving cycle, if it exists, should start in the coming months.

Bitcoin Halving Cycles

To hold the lows would be a good result.