Bitcoin and Gold Rebound

ByteTree BOLD Index Monthly Rebalancing Report;

The 21Shares Bitcoin Gold ETP (BOLD) invests in Bitcoin and Gold. BOLD combines the world’s two most liquid alternative assets on a risk-adjusted basis. Due to their naturally low correlation, the diversification benefits of holding both assets have been unusually high. Bitcoin prefers risk-on market conditions, while Gold prefers risk-off.

The target weights last month were 42.1% and 57.9% (Bitcoin to Gold). Price changes over the month led to the last day’s weights at 45.7% Bitcoin and 54.3% Gold. This means the latest rebalancing has reduced 1.8% from Bitcoin and increased Gold to meet the new target weights.

To see the slide pack, please click here.

BOLD Performance

In March, BOLD fell by 5.9%, while Bitcoin returned +4.1%, Gold -11.6%, and global equities -6.4%, in USD terms. Bitcoin has held up well in a Risk-OFF environment, which is unusual. Gold has corrected from a high level. It would likely have proved more defensive during the Iran War, had it not been such a popular holding among investors. That would also partly explain Bitcoin’s resilience, given it remains out of favour.

Bitcoin, Gold, BOLD, and Equities in USD – March 2026

Over the past year, BOLD has returned 22.9%, Bitcoin has returned -17.3%, while Gold has returned +49.4%, and equities +18.9%. The inverse nature of Bitcoin and Gold is clearly demonstrated over the period. BOLD has remained close to global equities.

Bitcoin, Gold, BOLD, and Global Equities in USD  - Past Year

Over the past five years, BOLD has returned +155.0%, while Bitcoin has returned +15.7%, Gold +173.4%, and equities +63%. The Bitcoin return has been low, as the five-year period takes it to the top of the last cycle. The average return of Bitcoin and Gold was 94.6%, yet BOLD returned 155.0% ahead, demonstrating 60.5% of added value. This is mainly driven by rebalancing transactions. Note how BOLD has kept up with Gold despite a weak Bitcoin.

Bitcoin, Gold, BOLD, and Global Equities in USD  - Past Five Years

This point is best demonstrated by the Bitcoin price high at $19,041 on 17^th December 2017, which seemed extreme at the time. Since then, BOLD has returned +419.3%, while Bitcoin has returned +258.1%, Gold +269.8%, and equities +131.1%. The average return of Bitcoin and Gold was 264.0%, yet BOLD was +155.4% ahead. Over these longer periods, BOLD has been comfortably ahead of both Bitcoin and Gold. This is unlikely to hold true during the next major Bitcoin rally.

Bitcoin, Gold, BOLD, and Global Equities in USD - Since Bitcoin’s 2017 Price High

Monthly Rebalancing of the BOLD ETP

BOLD allocates to Bitcoin and Gold on a risk-adjusted basis using historical volatility calculated from daily price movements. The less volatile asset, with lower daily price moves, gets a higher weight in the index at the end of the monthly rebalancing.

It is notable that Bitcoin’s 360-day volatility is falling, while Gold’s has been rising. Note how the short-term 180-day volatility for Bitcoin has risen, which will slow the decline in the 360-day volatility in the coming months. For Gold, the 180-day measure is leading Gold’s volatility higher. The gap between the asset volatilities has never been narrower than it is today.

Bitcoin and Gold’s Past 360-day Volatility

Rather than having the same amount of value invested in each asset, the BOLD strategy aims to hold equal amounts of “risk” in each asset and is hence “risk-weighted”. The volatility of Bitcoin and Gold over the past 360 days was 32.5% and 25.4%, respectively. The increase in Gold’s volatility has been significant, and it has not been in this territory since the financial crisis in 2008.

If Bitcoin and Gold had the same volatility, the weights would be 50/50. Indeed, if Gold’s volatility were ever higher than Bitcoin’s, then Bitcoin would have a larger allocation. The volatility measures have resulted in new target weights of 43.9% for Bitcoin and 56.1% for Gold, using this formula.

Asset allocation is an important feature. Over the long term, the aim is to equalise the risk in each asset. In 2017 and 2018, BOLD had relatively low exposure to Bitcoin due to its high volatility at the time, which held it in good stead in the 2018 bear market. At other times, it has generally been in the 20% to 25% range, with the remaining balance in Gold. The current Bitcoin weight is a record high.

Bitcoin: Daily Target Weight

The monthly rebalancing transactions, which repeatedly top up the weaker asset, have added significant value compared to a buy-and-hold strategy. Using the weight in Bitcoin, you can see how the monthly rebalancing brings the asset allocation back into line. Repeatedly doing this adds value while maintaining a constant level of risk.

Bitcoin: Daily Weight and Target Weight

The daily weights deviate much more than the monthly target weights due to the intra-month price movements between Bitcoin and Gold. For example, Bitcoin has lagged Gold in recent months, and so Bitcoin’s exposure has been boosted back up to the target weight during the monthly rebalancing. This ensures the strategy maintains the optimised weights for Bitcoin and Gold.

If Bitcoin were particularly strong one month and Gold weak, the rebalancing process would reduce Bitcoin’s exposure back down to the target weight, and increase Gold’s, at the month's end. This process keeps the amount of risk, as defined by volatility, roughly the same in each asset. That means BOLD maintains its risk level over time, without being overly exposed to either Bitcoin or Gold. This explains why BOLD’s volatility is so low, a key advantage over holding Bitcoin and Gold separately.

BOLD’s Volatility Is Comparable with Gold

Risk is not just about volatility but also about maximum drawdowns. Historically, Bitcoin drawdowns have been severe and Gold drawdowns, in the minds of many, less so. But in the 1980s and 1990s, Gold had prolonged drawdowns, and that will happen again one day. By diversifying between the assets, the largest drawdowns have been dampened. Consequently, BOLD’s drawdowns have been much lower than either Bitcoin or Gold alone.

Max Drawdown: Gold, Bitcoin, and BOLD

While Bitcoin and Gold travel along different paths, it is notable how BOLD has historically been highly correlated with the global money supply. BOLD has been an efficient way to express this macroeconomic view.

BOLD Versus the Global Money Supply

Bitcoin and Gold ETF Flows

Over the past 90 days, Gold ETFs have seen inflows collapse, whereas Bitcoin ETFs have stabilised. The correlation between the asset flows has generally been negative.

The total value of Bitcoin and Gold ETFs is $600 billion. This has been a $100 billion setback over the month, but they remain major alternative asset allocations.

BOLD ETP Listings

The 21Shares ByteTree BOLD ETP (BOLD) is listed in Switzerland, Germany, the Netherlands, France, Sweden, Italy, and the United Kingdom.

BOLD ETP

The 21Shares Bitcoin Gold ETP (BOLD) tracks the BOLD Index. The fund now holds $38 million in Bitcoin and Gold, held in safe custody with Copper for Bitcoin and JP Morgan for Gold. March saw strong volume traded once again, exceeding $12 million. The GBP volume is shown in blue.

21Shares ByteTree BOLD ETP Price and Volume by Share Class in US$

BOLD trades actively in CHF, EUR, USD, SEK, and GBP. The ticker is BOLD. The 21Shares Bitcoin Gold ETP trades in the primary market, meaning that purchases and sales result in direct buy or sell transactions of Bitcoin and Gold from the market.

For further information, please visit BOLDETF.com, which offers extensive data and charts to help investors better understand the benefits of the strategy.

Recent Videos

Please watch our recent videos with:

• Charlie Erith, Wiston Capital (New - March 2026)
• 21Shares with Max Michielsen and Darius Moukhtarzadeh (New - March 2026)
• Chris Wood, Chief Equity Strategist at Jefferies (February 2026)
• John Reade, Senior Market Strategist at the World Gold Council (January 2026)
• Izabella Kaminska, Founder of The Blind Spot (January 2026)
• Adrian Fritz, Chief Investment Strategist at 21Shares (January 2026)

Product Details

Contact

For information on investing in BOLD, contact bold@bytetree.com.

If your investment firm or media outlet would like a private briefing on BOLD, we will be happy to oblige. If a physical meeting is not possible, we can arrange a Zoom call.

Further Information

• Kaiko Index Provider
• 21Shares BOLD ETP
• BOLDETF.com