Bitcoin and Gold Record Divergence
ByteTree BOLD Index Monthly Rebalancing Report;
The 21Shares Bitcoin Gold ETP (BOLD) invests in Bitcoin and Gold. BOLD combines the world’s two most liquid alternative assets on a risk-adjusted basis. Due to their naturally low correlation, the diversification benefits of holding both assets have been unusually high. Bitcoin prefers risk-on market conditions, while Gold prefers risk-off.
The target weights last month were 36.9% and 63.1% (Bitcoin to Gold). Price changes over the month led to the last day’s weights at 31.7% Bitcoin and 68.3% Gold. This means the latest rebalancing has added 10.4% to Bitcoin and reduced from Gold to meet the new target weights.
BOLD Performance
In February, BOLD fell by 4.9%, while Bitcoin returned -22.1%, Gold +7.9%, and global equities +0.7%, in USD terms. Bitcoin’s weakness has persisted, while Gold has recovered some of its January losses.
Bitcoin, Gold, BOLD, and Equities in USD – February 2026
Over the past year, BOLD has returned 40.4%, Bitcoin has returned -22.2%, while Gold has returned +84.7%, and equities +21.3%. The Gold price is climbing back to the January high. BOLD captured some of the upside from Gold and shook off some of the weakness from Bitcoin.
Bitcoin, Gold, BOLD, and Global Equities in USD - Past Year
The deviation between Bitcoin and Gold has never been wider. In 2026, the Gold price is the most extended from the trend since 1979, while Bitcoin is deeply oversold. Combining those two factors results in a spread that has never been wider. History suggests that Bitcoin is more likely to deliver outsized gains over the next few years from here than Gold.
Bitcoin and Gold Deviation from Trend
Over the past five years, BOLD has returned +182.2%, while Bitcoin has returned +34.1%, Gold +206.0%, and equities +76.2%. The average return of Bitcoin and Gold was 124%, yet BOLD was 56.1% ahead, demonstrating the added value from rebalancing transactions.
Bitcoin, Gold, BOLD, and Global Equities in USD - Past Five Years
This point is best demonstrated by the Bitcoin price high at $19,041 on 17th December 2017, which seemed extreme at the time. Since then, BOLD has returned +461.7%, while Bitcoin has returned +254.3%, Gold +312.7%, and equities +145.0%. The average return of Bitcoin and Gold was 283.5%, yet BOLD was +178.2% ahead. The more stable journey of holding BOLD is driven by the asset allocation described below.
Bitcoin, Gold, BOLD, and Global Equities in USD - Since Bitcoin’s 2017 Price High
Monthly Rebalancing of the BOLD ETP
BOLD allocates to Bitcoin and Gold on a risk-adjusted basis using historical volatility calculated from daily price movements. The less volatile asset, which has lower daily price moves, gets a higher weight in the index at the end of the monthly rebalancing.
It is notable that Bitcoin’s 360-day volatility is falling, while Gold’s has been rising. Note how the short-term 180-day volatility for Bitcoin has risen, which will slow the decline in the 360-day volatility in the coming months. For Gold, the 180-day measure is leading Gold’s volatility higher. The gap between the asset volatilities has never been narrower than it is today.
Bitcoin and Gold’s Past 360-day Volatility
Rather than having the same amount of value invested in each asset, the BOLD strategy aims to hold equal amounts of “risk” in each asset and is hence “risk-weighted”. The volatility of Bitcoin and Gold over the past 360 days was observed to be 32.2% and 23.4%, respectively. The increase in Gold’s volatility has been significant and has not been in this territory since the financial crisis in 2008.
If Bitcoin and Gold had the same volatility, the weights would be 50/50. Indeed, if Gold’s volatility were ever higher than Bitcoin’s, then Bitcoin would have a larger allocation. The volatility measures have resulted in new target weights of 42.1% for Bitcoin and 57.9% for Gold, using this formula.
Asset allocation is an important feature. Over the long term, the aim is to equalise the risk in each asset. In 2017 and 2018, BOLD had relatively low exposure to Bitcoin due to its high volatility at the time, which held it in good stead in the 2018 bear market. At other times, it has generally been in the 20% to 25% range, with the remaining balance in Gold. The current Bitcoin weight is a record high.
Bitcoin: Daily Target Weight
The monthly rebalancing transactions, which repeatedly top up the weaker asset, have added significant value compared to a buy-and-hold strategy. Using the weight in Bitcoin, you can see how the monthly rebalancing brings the asset allocation back into line. Repeatedly doing this adds value while maintaining a constant level of risk.
Bitcoin: Daily Weight and Target Weight
The daily weights deviate much more than the monthly target weights due to the intra-month price movements between Bitcoin and Gold. For example, Bitcoin has lagged Gold in recent months, and so Bitcoin’s exposure has been boosted back up to the target weight during the monthly rebalancing. This ensures the strategy maintains the optimised weights for Bitcoin and Gold.
If Bitcoin were particularly strong one month and Gold weak, the rebalancing process would reduce Bitcoin’s exposure back down to the target weight, and increase Gold’s, at the month's end. This process keeps the amount of risk, as defined by volatility, roughly the same in each asset. That means BOLD maintains its risk level over time, without being overly exposed to either Bitcoin or Gold. This explains why BOLD’s volatility is so low, a key advantage over holding Bitcoin and Gold separately.
BOLD’s Volatility Is Comparable with Gold
Risk is not just a matter of volatility but of maximum drawdowns. Historically, Bitcoin drawdowns have been severe and Gold drawdowns, in the minds of many, less so. But in the 1980s and 1990s, Gold had prolonged drawdowns, and that will happen again one day. By diversifying between the assets, the largest drawdowns have been dampened. BOLD drawdowns have been much lower than either Bitcoin or Gold alone.
Max Drawdown: Gold, Bitcoin, and BOLD
While Bitcoin and Gold travel along different paths, it is notable how BOLD has historically been highly correlated with the global money supply. BOLD has been an efficient way to express this macroeconomic view.
BOLD Versus the Global Money Supply
Bitcoin and Gold ETF Flows
Gold ETFs have seen $25bn inflows over the past 90 days, in contrast to Bitcoin ETFs, which have seen $2bn of outflows, a trend that is slowing. The correlation between the asset flows has generally been negatively correlated.
The total value of Bitcoin and Gold ETFs has touched $690 billion, demonstrating that this is a major alternative asset allocation.
BOLD ETP Listings
The 21Shares ByteTree BOLD ETP (BOLD) is now listed on the Milan Stock Exchange, alongside listings in Switzerland, Germany, the Netherlands, France, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.
BOLD ETP
The 21Shares Bitcoin Gold ETP (BOLD) tracks the BOLD Index. The fund now holds $41.5 million in Bitcoin and Gold, held in safe custody with Copper for Bitcoin and JP Morgan for Gold. January saw strong volume traded once again, exceeding $9 million. The GBP volume is shown in blue.
21Shares Bitcoin Gold ETP (BOLD) Price and Volume by Share Class in US$
BOLD trades actively in CHF, EUR, USD, SEK, and GBP. The ticker is BOLD. The 21Shares Bitcoin Gold ETP trades in the primary market, meaning that purchases and sales result in direct buy or sell transactions of Bitcoin and Gold from the market.
For further information, please visit BOLDETF.com, which offers extensive data and charts to help investors better understand the benefits of the strategy.
Recent Videos
Please watch our recent videos with:
- Chris Wood, Chief Equity Strategist at Jefferies
- John Reade, Senior Market Strategist at the World Gold Council
- Izabella Kaminska, Founder of The Blind Spot
- Adrian Fritz, Chief Investment Strategist at 21Shares
Product Details
| Issuer | 21Shares AG, Switzerland |
| Launch Date | 27 April 2022 |
| Fee | 0.65% Per Annum |
| Custody | Copper Technologies (Swiss) for Bitcoin, JP Morgan for Gold |
| Investment Objective | Risk-weighted Bitcoin and Gold Exposure |
| Benchmark | Kaiko ByteTree BOLD Index |
| Rebalancing Frequency | Monthly |
| ISIN | CH1146882308 |
| SEDOL | BK81V89 CH |
| WKN | A3GYXW |
| Ticker | BOLD SW (Switzerland), BOLD GY (Germany), BOLD FP (France), BOLD NA (the Netherlands), BOLD SS (Sweden), BOLD LN (United Kingdom), BOLD IT (Italy) |
| Listings | Switzerland, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Sweden, United Kingdom, Italy |
| Currency | USD, EUR, CHF, GBP, SEK |
Contact
For information on investing in BOLD, contact bold@bytetree.com.
If your investment firm or media outlet would like a private briefing on BOLD, we will be happy to oblige. If a physical meeting is not possible, we can arrange a Zoom call.
