BOLD – Stability in a Storm
ByteTree BOLD Index Monthly Rebalancing Report;
The 21Shares ByteTree BOLD ETP (BOLD) invests in Bitcoin and Gold. BOLD combines the world’s two most liquid alternative assets on a risk-adjusted basis. Due to their naturally low correlation, the diversification benefits of holding both assets have been unusually high. Bitcoin prefers risk-on market conditions, while Gold prefers risk-off.
The target weights last month were 33.3% and 66.7% (Bitcoin to Gold). Price changes over the month led to the last day’s weights at 31.7% Bitcoin and 68.3% Gold. This means the latest rebalancing has seen 2.5% added to Bitcoin and reduced from Gold to meet the new target weights.
BOLD Performance
In October, BOLD rose by 1.5%, Bitcoin fell by 3.1%, and Gold rose by 3.7% in USD terms. The month saw significant corrections for both assets, but it was encouraging to see the assets exhibit counter-cyclical behaviour. Gold rose as Bitcoin fell early in the month, only to reverse later. BOLD was relatively stable as a result.
Bitcoin, Gold, and BOLD in USD – October 2025
Over the past year, BOLD has returned +49.5% and Bitcoin has returned +53.4%, in contrast to Gold with a +45.9% gain. These are remarkably close results.
Bitcoin, Gold, and BOLD in USD - Past Year
Since the inception of the 21Shares ByteTree BOLD ETP on 27th April 2022, BOLD has returned +143.1%, Bitcoin has returned +169.5%, and Gold is up +112.2%.
Bitcoin, Gold, and BOLD in USD - Since Inception
Monthly Rebalancing of the BOLD ETP
BOLD allocates to Bitcoin and Gold on a risk-adjusted basis using past volatility, which is calculated using daily price movements. The less volatile asset, which has lower daily price moves, gets a higher weight in the index at the end of the monthly rebalancing.
It is notable that Bitcoin’s 360-day volatility is falling, while Gold’s has been rising. Note how the short-term 180-day volatility for Bitcoin is leading the 360-day volatility lower. For Gold, it is leading Gold’s volatility higher. The gap between the asset volatilities has never been narrower than it is today. This indicates that Gold has become a more exciting asset in investors’ eyes, while Bitcoin has become increasingly stable.
Bitcoin and Gold’s Past 360-day Volatility
Rather than having the same amount of value invested in each asset, the BOLD strategy aims to hold an equal amount of “risk” in each asset and is hence “risk-weighted”. The volatility for Bitcoin and Gold over the past 360 days was observed to be 34.2% and 17.8%, respectively.
If Bitcoin and Gold had the same volatility, the weights would be 50/50. Indeed, if Gold’s volatility were ever higher than Bitcoin’s, then Bitcoin would have a larger allocation. The volatility measures have resulted in new target weights of 34.2% Bitcoin and 65.8% Gold using this formula. BOLD now holds over one-third in Bitcoin.
Asset allocation is an important feature. Over the long term, the aim is to equalise the risk in each asset. In 2017 and 2018, BOLD had relatively low exposure to Bitcoin due to its high volatility at the time, which held it in good stead in the 2018 bear market. At other times, it has generally been in the 20% to 25% range, with the remaining balance in Gold.
