BOLD · · 7 min read

Bitcoin and Gold Are Counter-Cyclical

Bitcoin and Gold Are Counter-Cyclical
Disclaimer: Your capital is at risk. This is not investment advice.

ByteTree BOLD Index Monthly Rebalancing Report;

Following rebalancing on 28th February 2025, the new target weights for the BOLD Index are 25.5% Bitcoin and 74.5% Gold, a 0.6% increase for Bitcoin over the previous month.

The 21Shares ByteTree BOLD ETP (BOLD) invests in Bitcoin and Gold. BOLD combines the world’s two most liquid alternative assets on a risk-adjusted basis. Due to their natural low correlation, the diversification benefits of holding both assets have been unusually high. Bitcoin prefers risk-on market conditions, while Gold prefers risk-off.

In February, BOLD fell by 4.5%, Bitcoin fell by 17.5%, and Gold rose by 2.1%, while global equities fell by 0.8% in USD terms.

The target weights last month were 24.9% and 75.1% (Bitcoin to Gold). Price changes over the month led to the last day’s weights at 20.5% Bitcoin and 79.5% Gold. This means the latest rebalancing has seen 5.0% added to Bitcoin and reduced from Gold to meet the new target weights.

Bitcoin, Gold, BOLD, and Equities in USD – February 2025

Source: Bloomberg

BOLD Performance

Over the past year, Bitcoin has returned +37.1%, in contrast to Gold, which has returned +39.8%, while equities rose +14.0%. BOLD has returned +40.1% in US dollars. Although slight, BOLD is ahead of both Bitcoin and Gold over the past year, demonstrating the benefits of a rebalancing strategy.

Bitcoin, Gold, BOLD, Equities  - Past Year

Source: Bloomberg

Since the inception of the 21Shares ByteTree BOLD ETP on 27th April 2022, Bitcoin is +115.3%, Gold is +51.5%, and equities are +35.5%. BOLD has returned +77.3%. A fixed 75/25 Gold/Bitcoin strategy would have returned 67.5%, once again demonstrating the power of rebalancing. That 9.8% outperformance comes after fees.

Bitcoin, Gold, BOLD, and Equities - Since Inception

Source: Bloomberg

Monthly Rebalancing of the BOLD ETP

BOLD allocates to Bitcoin and Gold on a risk-adjusted basis using past volatility, which is calculated using daily price movements. The less volatile asset, which has lower daily price moves, gets a higher weight in the index at the end of the monthly rebalancing.

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The target weights last month were 30.7% and 69.3% (Bitcoin to Gold). Price changes over the month led to the last day’s weights at 28.2% Bitcoin and 71.8% Gold.